
Colorado Business Review Leeds Economic Indicators
The bar graph illustrates the annual job additions in Colorado from 2000 to the projected figures for 2024. Throughout this period, the data shows varied job growth, with significant fluctuations indicative of economic shifts. Notable dips into job losses are observed during the years following the 2008 financial crisis and again in 2020, likely due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The graph reveals a robust recovery starting in 2021, with a continued positive trajectory into 2022 and 2023. For 2024, it's projected that Colorado will add 49,600 jobs, building on the momentum from the previous year's gain of 72,300 jobs, indicating a hopeful outlook for the state's job market. This information underscores a recovering and potentially thriving economic climate in Colorado.
LBCI
Business confidence improved ahead of Q3 2025, but remained squarely in negative territory as uncertainty and tariffs weighed on sentiment. The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) ticked up 5.9 points from Q2 to Q3, improving to the 5th-lowest number on record. Panelists cited uncertainty, tariffs, and other federal policies for the primary reasons for their outlook. All six components of the index increased from Q2 to Q3, but the components all remained well-below levels measured a year ago.
The LBCI captures Colorado business leaders’ expectations for the national economy, state economy, industry sales, profits, hiring plans, and capital expenditures. The index increased from 31.9 reported last quarter to 37.9 in the current survey (50=neutral), and confidence remained muted looking out further to Q4 2025. A total of 189 panelists responded to the survey from June 1 through June 20, 2025.
- All components of the LBCI recorded negative perceptions (below an index value of 50) in Q3 2025. The index was highest for the industry sales and lowest for the state economy. The modest improvement largely came from individuals moving from a state of negative perceptions to a more neutral outlook (versus positive perceptions).
- The uncertainty, tariffs, and federal policy were the three most noted reasons for panelists’ sentiments headed into Q3 2025, cited by 49%, 44%, and 29% of respondents, respectively.
- A majority of business leaders expressed negative expectations about federal policy ahead of Q3, with the most negative expectations about trade policy (tariffs), federal contracts and grants, immigration policy, and health care policy.
- The Consumer Price Index (i.e., inflation) rose 2.2% in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood region year-over-year in May versus 2.4% nationally during the same period.
- Colorado’s employment grew by 0.7% year-over-year in May 2025, placing the state 33rd nationally in terms of job growth (month-over-month growth ranked 19th).
- Colorado’s personal income increased 4.3% year-over-year in Q1 2025, ranking the state 30th. Per capita personal income increased 3.5% year-over-year, ranking Colorado 31st.
- National real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 2025. Colorado’s GDP fell at an annualized rate of 0.4% from Q4 to Q1, but grew 2% year-over-year, ranking the state 19th and 23rd, respectively.
LBCI National and State Economies
State and national economic expectations increased ahead of Q3. State expectations improved from 28.1 in Q2 2025 to 34 in Q3 and remained nearly flat (33.5) looking out further to Q4. The national index increased from 25.9 in Q2 2025 to 35.6 ahead of Q3 2025 and 37.4 looking further out to Q4 2025. State expectations were below national expectations by 1.6 points.
For the state economy, 66.1% of respondents are negative on the outlook, while 8.5% expect a moderate-to-strong increase and 25.4% are neutral. On the national level, 62.4% are negative on the outlook, 19% expect an increase, and 18.5% are neutral.
National real (inflation-adjusted) GDP decreased 0.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR) in Q1 2025 according to the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In Q1 2025, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, gross private domestic investment increased 23.8% in Q1 2025, and government expenditures decreased 0.6%. Net exports, which subtract from GDP as imports exceed exports, increased (worsened) by $306 billion from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Colorado’s real GDP decreased at a SAAR of 0.4% for the quarter, but increased 2% year-over-year in Q1, ranking Colorado 19th and 23rd, respectively in Q1 2025. Overall, the largest year-over-year percentage gains in Colorado were recorded in Information (5%); Manufacturing (4.5%); and Professional, scientific, and technical services (4.2%). The largest losses were in Other Services (-4.1%); Educational Services (-4.1%), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (-3.9%).
LBCI Q3 2025
Sales and Profit Expectations
Sales and profits expectations increased ahead of Q3, recording the highest and second-highest levels in the index for the third quarter. The sales index increased from 37.3 ahead of Q2 2025 to 42.7 in Q3 2025 and settled at 42.5 looking further out to Q4. The profits index increased from 35.2 in Q2 2025 to 39.6 ahead of Q3 2025 and 40.5 looking out to Q4 2025. Individuals with a negative sales outlook (47.6%) outweighed those with positive perceptions (21.7%), while 30.7% remained neutral ahead of Q3. Profits expectations were tilted similarly—the negative perceptions outweighed the positive, 52.9% to 16.4% (30.7% remained neutral).
National economic growth is heavily influenced by growth in personal consumption expenditures as consumption makes up about 68% of national gross domestic product. Industry sales and profits are impacted by consumption. Nationally, personal consumption expenditures increased at an annualized rate of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025 (the slowest rate since Q2 2020), and 2.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, based on data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly growth in services (0.6%) exceeded the rate of growth in goods (0.1%).
Business-to-business sales are also a signal both for sales volume and profits. Wholesale trade sales, in nominal dollars, increased 6% year-over-year in April 2025. Durable goods posted a year-over-year increase of 8.4% while non-durable goods were up 3.8%. Wholesale inventories were up 2.3% over the year and 0.2% from the prior month.
In the first quarter of 2025, national personal income continued to climb, increasing 4.5% from Q4 2024, and the monthly data showed year-over-year growth of 4.5% in May. Colorado personal income rose 4.3% year-over-year and at an annualized rate of 7.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, ranking the state 30th and 16th nationally, for the respective metrics. Colorado had the 8th-highest per capita personal income in Q1 2025, at $85,002; the state ranked 31st for per capita personal income growth year-over-year (3.5%) and 17th for quarter-over-quarter annualized growth (7.1%).
CPI Reports
This graph contrasts the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) changes for the United States and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metropolitan area from 2001 to 2023. The gray bars represent the U.S. national CPI changes, while the blue bars depict those specific to Denver. The data highlights significant fluctuations in inflation rates over the years. Notably, Denver experienced a substantial inflation spike in 2022 at 8%, significantly higher than the U.S. average of 5.2% that year. Other years, such as 2009, show notable divergences, like Denver's CPI dip to -0.6%, contrasting with a less pronounced national decrease. Overall, this visual underscores the variability of inflation, with Denver often experiencing more pronounced changes compared to national trends.
The graph displays the contributions to year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood area, spanning from January 2020 to November 2023. Various categories are represented by different colors, including Housing, Transportation, Medical Care, Food and Beverages, Recreation, Apparel, Other Goods & Services, and Education and Communication. A noticeable trend in the graph is the fluctuating but generally increasing contributions of these categories to the overall CPI over the observed period, reflecting changes in the cost of living. The graph shows that Housing consistently contributes a significant portion, especially evident in the peaks seen in mid-2021 and mid-2022. Other categories like Transportation and Food also show varying levels of influence, with notable peaks at different intervals.
Colorado Economic Indicators
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