Colorado Business Review Leeds Economic Indicators
The bar graph illustrates the annual job additions in Colorado from 2000 to the projected figures for 2025. Throughout this period, the data shows varied job growth, with significant fluctuations indicative of economic shifts. Notable dips into job losses are observed during the years following the 2008 financial crisis and again in 2020, due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The graph reveals a robust recovery starting in 2021, with a continued positive trajectory into 2022 and 2023. For 2026, it's projected that Colorado will add 17,500 jobs, with the highest growth rates expected in Education and Health Services; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; and Government.
Colorado Business Review
The Colorado Business Review provides analysis and data highlights on Colorado’s economy. Read the latest issue below.
LBCI
Business leader confidence remained pessimistic heading into Q3 2026. Panelists were asked to provide reasons for their expectations ahead of Q3 2026. The most frequently cited reason was inflation, interest rates, and general cost pressures, mentioned by 35% of panelists. This was followed by political and policy instability (34%) and geopolitical events and global conflict (23%). Many of these concerns are closely interconnected. Inflation, geopolitical conflict, and broader economic uncertainty reinforce one another, contributing to continued business pessimism.
The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) captures Colorado business leaders’ expectations for the national and state economy, industry sales, profits, hiring, and capital expenditures. The index increased 1.3 points from Q2 2026 to Q3 2026. All six components of the index increased from Q2 to Q3, and all components were up when compared to Q3 2025. Although every component improved from the previous quarter, each remained below the neutral value of 50, indicating that business leaders continue to hold pessimistic expectations despite modest gains.
- All components of the LBCI recorded negative perceptions (below an index value of 50) in Q3 2026. The index was highest for the industry sales and lowest for the state economy.
- After ranking among the top two components for most (66%) of the index's 23-year history, the state component has fallen to last place for five consecutive quarters.
- The Consumer Price Index (i.e., inflation) rose 5% in the Denver-Aurora-Centennial region year-over-year in May compared to 4.2% growth nationally during the same period.
- Colorado’s employment growth was nearly flat year-over-year in May 2026, placing the state 31st nationally in terms of job growth (month-over-month growth ranked 40th).
- Colorado’s personal income increased 3.6% year-over-year in Q1 2026, ranking the state 27th. Per capita personal income increased 3.3% year-over-year, ranking Colorado 24th.
- National real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q4 2025 and 2.1% in Q1 2026. Colorado’s GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.4% both in Q4 2025 and in Q1 2026, ranking the state 9th and 17th, respectively.
LBCI National and State Economies
National and state economic expectations improved by the largest margins in the index ahead of Q3. State expectations increased from 34.7 in Q2 to 36.9 in Q3 and 37.7 looking out to Q4 2026. The national index posted the largest increase from Q2 to Q3, increasing from 35.4 in Q2 to 38.6 ahead of Q3 and 40.9 looking further to Q4 2026.
State economic expectations remained below national expectations—a relatively new pattern not observed in the index since 2005.
National real (inflation-adjusted) GDP increased 2.1% (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR) in Q1 2026 according to the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In Q1 2026, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, gross private domestic investment increased 7.9%, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 4.4%. Net exports declined by $33 billion from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, as import growth outpaced export growth, widening the trade deficit.
LBCI Q3 2026
Sales and Profit Expectations
Sales and profits expectations increased ahead of Q3, with sales remaining the highest-rated component and profits the second highest. The sales index increased from 48.9 ahead of Q2 to 49.6 in Q3 2026 but stepped back to 47.7 looking further out to Q4. The profits index increased from 46 in Q2 to 46.3 ahead of Q3 and Q4 2026. Individuals with a negative sales outlook (33.6%) slightly outweighed those with positive perceptions (31.3%), while 35% remained neutral ahead of Q3. Profits expectations showed a similar pattern with negative perceptions outweighing the positive, 41.6% to 27.1% (31.3% remained neutral).
While sentiment is cautious, the underlying fundamentals of consumption provide a more resilient backdrop. National economic growth is heavily influenced by growth in personal consumption expenditures as consumption makes up approximately 69% of national gross domestic product. Industry sales and profits are impacted by consumption. Nationally, personal consumption expenditures increased at an annualized rate of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, based on data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly growth in goods (0.4%) lagged the rate of growth in services (1.8%). Corporate profits after tax, without inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj), increased 17.4% year-over-year in Q1, the strongest pace of growth since 2021.
Business-to-business sales also serve as an indicator of both sales volume and profitability. Wholesale trade sales reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, in nominal dollars, increased 13.3% year-over-year in April 2026 (real, inflation-adjusted growth was 4.4%). Durable goods posted a year-over-year increase in sales of 13.1% (6.5% real) while non-durable goods sales were up 13.5% (2.3% real). Wholesale inventories were up 3.6% over the year and 0.6% from the prior month in April 2026.
National personal income continued to climb in May 2026, according to the BEA, up 3.8% over May 2025 and 0.7% from April 2026. Colorado personal income rose 3.6% year-over-year and at an annualized rate of 3.7% quarter-over-quarter (SAAR) in Q1 2026, ranking the state 27th and 21st nationally, for the respective metrics. Colorado had the 9th-highest per capita personal income in Q1 2026, at $87,956. The state ranked 24th for per capita personal income growth year-over-year (3.3%) and 18th for quarter-over-quarter annualized growth (3.6%).
CPI Reports
This graph contrasts the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) changes for the United States and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metropolitan area from 2001 to 2023. The gray bars represent the U.S. national CPI changes, while the blue bars depict those specific to Denver. The data highlights significant fluctuations in inflation rates over the years. Notably, Denver experienced a substantial inflation spike in 2022 at 8%, significantly higher than the U.S. average of 5.2% that year. Other years, such as 2009, show notable divergences, like Denver's CPI dip to -0.6%, contrasting with a less pronounced national decrease. Overall, this visual underscores the variability of inflation, with Denver often experiencing more pronounced changes compared to national trends.
The graph displays the contributions to year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood area, spanning from January 2020 to November 2023. Various categories are represented by different colors, including Housing, Transportation, Medical Care, Food and Beverages, Recreation, Apparel, Other Goods & Services, and Education and Communication. A noticeable trend in the graph is the fluctuating but generally increasing contributions of these categories to the overall CPI over the observed period, reflecting changes in the cost of living. The graph shows that Housing consistently contributes a significant portion, especially evident in the peaks seen in mid-2021 and mid-2022. Other categories like Transportation and Food also show varying levels of influence, with notable peaks at different intervals.
Colorado Economic Indicators
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